IRCPPS in the Links: Herman Cain, Outlier or the "New Normal"?

The Monkey Cage considers a Nate Silver article on Herman Cain's chances of clinching the nomination:

...I think I look at Silver’s data differently than he does. Cain is an outlier in the relationship between poll standing and insider support. But that’s not the relationship that matters. What matters is the relationship between these factors and winning the nomination. Figuring that out is hard, though, precisely because they are so related to one another. Polls and elite support (and media coverage, and money raised) are what we call multicolinear. In such a case, it’s hard to say if raising more money is more important than getting insider support, because the people who get one also get the other, and then they win...