IRCPPS in the Links: Andrew Gelman and Nate Silver on Predicting Presidential Elections

via Gelman's blog and Silver's 538:

Both are responding to articles about Alan J. Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University who offered up a model for predicting winners in his 1992 book 13 Keys to the Presidency, claiming in an interview that Obama is a lock to win in 2012.